OK, Here it is: 8,019,763 exchange QHPs thru 4/19 (UPDATED)

Well, I had it down as 8.03M as of 4/15; the actual was 8.02M as of 4/19. So...hard to say precisely how accurate I was since the dates don't match, but obviously I slightly overshot the mark. On the other hand, I also called 8.14M as of 4/30, so presumably there will be a follow-up report in another week or so with the "mop-up" enrollments from the final 11 days.

  • TEXAS: Was 295K as of 3/01; 734K as of 4/19
  • FLORIDA: Was 442K as of 3/01; 984K as of 4/19
  • GEORGIA: Was 139K as of 3/01; 317K as of 4/19

I'll start plugging the actual numbers into the spreadsheet next.

UPDATE: OK, I've plugged all of the official HHS numbers into the spreadsheet. There are a handful of states where the numbers don't quite match, presumably due to clerical cleanup, double-entries being removed, etc. However, there are six states with significant differences, two of which I can't figure out:

  • Arkansas, Hawaii and Minnesota are 1,219, 150 and 2,054 higher due to more recent data since 4/19 being released by those states.
  • New York is way off (by over 65,000), but for a simple reason: The New York exchange lumps enrollees in their Child Health Plus program in with QHPs, even though technically this isn't a QHP program. There were over 40,000 of these as of the end of February; this number has climbed to 65,028 as of 4/19.
    Since Child Health Plus is sort of neither fish nor fowl (it's privately funded, so isn't on the Medicaid/CHIP side, but also isn't a QHP), I'm moving it over to the "Off Exchange QHP" column for the moment.
  • New Mexico: The latest state report claims 34,996 QHPs as of 4/15, but the HHS report lists it as 32,062 as of 4/19. This is a difference of 2,934, too high to just shrug off.
  • Vermont: The latest state report claims only 24,888 QHPs as of 4/15, but the HHS report lists it as 38,048 as of 4/19. This is a difference of 13,160, which is way too high to shrug off.

As a result of the above discrepancies, my own subtotal currently sits at 8,006,771, about 13,000 less than the official HHS number. When I figure out the NM and VT issues I'll correct accordingly.

I still suspect there's about another 110,000 more exchange QHPs which have come in since 4/19 (about 10,000/day overall), which should bring the grand total up to about 8.12 million when the dust settles.

UPDATE: I should also thank Esther Ferington who points out in the comments that my 8.03M is off by about 10,000 people (0.125%) when compared to a date 4 days off.

I guess I can call that being 99.8% accurate, yes?

Oh yeah: And by the way, even at 8.02 million...

  • If only 85% end up paying in the end, that's still 6.8 million, very close to the original CBO projection
  • If 90% end up paying in the end, that's 7.2 million, well above the CBO projection
  • If 93% (my own rule-of-thumb) pay in the end, that's 7.46 million

Furthermore, if I'm correct about the final total ending up around 8.12 million:

  • 85% Paid: 6.9M
  • 90% Paid: 7.31M
  • 93% Paid: 7.55M