Sticking My Neck Out: 6M Exchange QHPs Announced Today


Time: D H M S

OK, I'm probably gonna go down in flames for this, but this "50K Households Started Applications Yesterday" tweet from Covered California keeps coming to mind.

50,000 households started #CoveredCA health insurance applications yesterday - our highest number yet.

— Covered California (@CoveredCA) March 26, 2014

I'm gonna go for it and predict an announcement later today that the 6 million exchange QHP milestone has been hit.

(to clarify: if they announce it today, it probably actually crossed 6M sometime last night or early this morning)

I'm leaving the 3/31 projection as 6.39M for the moment, but will update this (or not) depending on whether I'm correct about a 6M announcement (or not).

UPDATE: A contributor just sent me a link to this article from The Hill from yesterday, which makes me feel much better about making the 6M Announced Today projection:

The administration said 5.2 million people had selected a plan through the middle of March and has long expected a flood of enrollees to close out the period. If the White House can hit the Congressional Budget Office’s reduced forecast of 6 million enrollees, which was reduced from 7 million after the website malfunctioned for two months, that could go a long way to repairing public and political perception of the law.

For heaven's sake. If I had read that article an hour ago I wouldn't have been so nervous about this blog entry. "The middle of March" presumably means around the 16th or 17th, when I had the number pegged at around 5.09 million...which means it was actually about 100K higher than I thought.

At around 70K/day+, that automatically moves the 6M milestone up about a day and a half...from Friday or Saturday to Wednesday or in, yesterday or today, as I just said. :)

This also makes it far more likely that my 79K/day projection for the current week is accurate as well.