2018 MIDTERM ELECTION

Time: D H M S

Projection MAY have just jumped up to 6.5M...or may still be at 6.2M

OK, I either have some very good news...or one heck of a misunderstanding here.

Earlier today I updated both New York and Colorado's QHP numbers...and while both were very fine, they were actually down somewhat from last week (large drop for NY, small one for CO). This may actually make sense, as both of these state exchanges have been running very smoothly for months now; it's possible that they've simply started to reach the end of the line in terms of residents actually signing up (or perhaps they'll both experience a final mini-surge right at the tail end this weekend).

However, the apparent news out of both North Carolina and Louisiana has me thrown for a heck of a loop (visit the links for details).

The bottom line is this: IF both NC and LA truly have hit the QHP numbers that the corresponding articles claim (305K for NC and 100K for LA), then that dramatically improves the Exchange QHP projection for the final week, to a whopping 6.53 Million.

In fact, if both of these states (which are each GOP-controlled, neither has Medicaid expansion and both are on the Federal exchange) really have hit these amazing QHP numbers in March, then other HC.gov-run states could be equally stunning.

HOWEVER, if both of these are gross misunderstandings (and therefore I have to ignore both the NC and LA numbers for now), then my projection remains around 6.2 Million for the moment, since neither NY nor CO moved the needle much (in fact, they both drop it down a smidge).

For now, I'm updating the Projection Chart with just the NY & CO updates. I'm trying to confirm/sort out the NC/LA numbers, and will report as soon as I find out anything.