With latest updates from OR, WA & NY, grand total breaks 10M*

Three updates today, two of which are minor, one is significant; combine all three and we've hit 10 Million altogether (with caveats):

These 3 updates push the Private QHP enrollment tally up to about 2.4 million; add about 4.5 million Medicaid/CHIP enrollments and 3.1 million "sub-26'ers" added to their parents plan thanks to the ACA, and you hit just over 10 million total.

*So, why the asterisk in the title?

Well, it should be noted that:

  1. It's important to note that other numbers may fluctuate; for instance, I still haven't received confirmation from Nevada's exchange about the 3,700 difference between HHS's 12/28 tally and their own lower tally as of 1/11; presumably that would knock us back below the 10M mark, but obviously that would only be very, very temporary.
  2. Some of those 3.1M Young Adults are likely being double-counted, since they may have moved off of their parents plan and onto their own ACA-compliant plans by now...although it's also even more likely that the "3.1M" number, which is already outdated (it stems from a study published in June 2012...and even that number was up from 2.5 million a year earlier) could be higher than that. In fact, a study by the Commonwealth Fund in 2013 suggested that the total number of "sub-26ers" on their parents plans specifically thanks to the ACA may be as high as 7.8 million, although I'm sticking with the 3.1M figure for now for reasons I noted earlier.
  3. The HHS/CMS openly admits that "some" of the Medicaid enrollees may have already been on the program under the pre-ACA rules and have simply renewed their enrollments. So far, Washington State is the only one I know of which is separating that number out (and no, I don't include it on the spreadsheet for WA for that reason)
  4. as those opposed to the ACA keep pointing out, a good chunk of the 2.4M private enrollees have simply replaced a pre-ACA plan with a new one (including my own family), and are therefore not "new". For instance, in New York, it looks like about 56% of their enrollees already had insurance. Whether this last batch should "count" or not depends on your perspective, of course.

With all of those caveats in place, it's still a pretty significant milestone.