It's been another month since my last attempt to estimate a grim but vitally important number: Just how many Trump voters vs. Biden voters have become fatal victims of the GOP/FOX News coordinated anti-vaxx/anti-mask campaign to date, and what sort of impact might this end up having on the midterm elections this November?

As I said at the time, I'm not going to attempt to justify this cynical bean counting anymore...the evidence is now overwhelming that Republican leadership, in coordination with outlets like FOX News and other right-wing outlets, made a conscious decision in spring 2021 to push hard against Americans getting vaccinated against COVID-19 for purely cynical political math reasons.

New York State of Health

via NY State of Health:

  • Enrollment Specialists Available at YMCAs Across the State on April 30th
  • New Yorkers Can Learn About the Availability of Expanded Financial Assistance
  • Year-Round Enrollment Opportunities Available

ALBANY, N.Y. (April 25, 2022) - NY State of Health, the state’s official health plan Marketplace, announced today that it will join the YMCA in celebration of their annual Healthy Kids Day, held this year on Saturday, April 30th.  NY State of Health enrollment specialists are attending Healthy Kids Day events throughout the State, to educate New Yorkers about obtaining quality, low-cost health coverage through the Marketplace. Event attendees will be able to meet certified enrollment assistors at more than 25 YMCA locations to receive enrollment guidance and learn about the availability of increased financial assistance made available through the American Rescue Plan Act. 

New Jersey

via the New Jersey Dept. of Banking & Insurance:

TRENTON —The New Jersey Department of Banking and Insurance today announced that it is accepting public comment on access to comprehensive reproductive care, coverage of reproductive services and related health impacts.  

The department is collecting public comment as part of the implementation of the historic Freedom of Reproductive Choice Act recently signed by Governor Phil Murphy, which codifies the constitutional right to freedom of reproductive choice in New Jersey.  

“In signing the Freedom of Reproductive Choice Act, Governor Murphy protected a woman’s right to make medical decisions about her reproductive health,” said Commissioner Marlene Caride. “The department is looking forward to hearing from the public as we examine the impact of insurance coverage on the availability of comprehensive reproductive care services.” 

MNsure Logo

via MNsure:

ST. PAUL, Minn.—New data released by the Minnesota Department of Health shows actions taken by state officials and the Biden administration helped drop the state’s uninsured rate in 2021 to 4.0%, the lowest level ever measured.

“The Minnesota Heath Access Survey shows that more Minnesota families have been able to access and maintain their health insurance during this critical time,” said MNsure CEO Nate Clark. “Minnesota has been able to reduce the uninsured rate thanks in part to targeted, effective policies, including the expansion of premium tax credits that lower the cost of monthly premiums for private health plans available through MNsure.”

Access Health CT Logo

via Access Health CT:

Access Health CT Announces New Special Enrollment Period for Connecticut Residents with Lower Income

HARTFORD, Conn. (April 25, 2022) — Access Health CT (AHCT) today announced a new Special Enrollment Period (SEP) for Connecticut residents with lower income beginning April 25. This new SEP will provide access to no- or very low-cost health insurance plans made possible by the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA).

To be eligible for this SEP, Connecticut residents must:

  • Be new or returning customers who are not currently enrolled in a health insurance plan through Access Health CT.
  • Have a household income at or below 150% of the Federal Poverty Level (FPL). 

If you don't know what 150% FPL is, it depends on your household size:

NOTE: With national COVID deaths continuing to thankfully drop off (the 7-day avg. is down to ~410/day now), I've decided to switch to monthly updates going forward unless COVID deaths start spiking again.

I also recently stopped posting the relative case rates as they've been pretty much stable for the past couple months and the rise of home-based testing, which usually isn't reported to county/state health departments anyway, has made that data somewhat less meaningful.

I've been posting weekly looks at the rate of COVID-19 cases & deaths at the county level since the point at which every U.S. adult could theoretically have received 2 COVID vaccination doses nearly a year ago, broken out by partisan lean (i.e, what percent of the vote Donald Trump received in 2020), as well as by the vaccination rate of each county in the U.S. (nonpartisan).

COVID-19 Vaccine

Methodology reminders:

  • I go by county residents who have received the 2nd COVID-19 shot only (or 1st in the case of the J&J vaccine).
  • I base my percentages on the total population via the 2020 U.S. Census including all ages (i.e., it includes kids under 12).
HealthSourceRI Logo

Yeah, they're a bit late to the party on this, but it's still nice to see HealthSource RI issue their official 2022 Open Enrollment Period report:

EAST PROVIDENCE, R.I. (April 14, 2022) HealthSource RI’s Open Enrollment period was held from November 1, 2021 and ended on January 31, 2022. This was a very successful Open Enrollment period for HealthSource RI (HSRI), with enrollments increasing to 31,445 in 2022 compared to 30,071 in 2021. These mark HealthSource RI’s highest enrollment numbers since 2020.

The American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA), enacted by the federal government in February 2021, provided historically high savings in the form of subsidies/tax credits for eligible individuals and families in Rhode Island. ARPA also created a new opportunity for individuals and families whose income is over 400% of the federal poverty level (FPL) to receive financial assistance.

A month ago I posted an analysis which gave a general idea of how much more various households will have to pay in health insurance premiums if the expanded financial subsidies provided by the American Rescue Plan (ARP) are allowed to expire at the end of this year.

Again, here's what the subsidy tables look like under the ACA itself and under the American Rescue Plan. The premium caps are the maximum percent of household income which a household has to pay for the benchmark Silver plan at various income ranges:

I've been posting weekly looks at the rate of COVID-19 cases & deaths at the county level since the point at which every U.S. adult could theoretically have received 2 COVID vaccination doses nearly a year ago, broken out by partisan lean (i.e, what percent of the vote Donald Trump received in 2020), as well as by the vaccination rate of each county in the U.S. (nonpartisan).

For a long time I used July 1st, 2021 as my start point, but in recent months I decided to back this up to May 1st, 2021 instead. Pinning down an exact date for this is a bit tricky since a) different populations were made eligible at different points in 2021, and b) it takes 3-4 weeks after getting your first vaccination dose before you can get the second one, but May 1st is what I've finally settled on.

As always, here's my methodology:

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