Yes, of course it's blank. As you can see, I'm doing things a bit differently this time around: I'm presenting the full enrollment period all at once (doable since it's only 3 months instead of 6), and I'm including the official "targets" from HHS, CBO and myself on the right side.

Underneath, just for posterity, I've posted the final version of the 2014 Graph.

This morning, even as I was posting my official 2015 QHP projection, Gallup came out with two important surveys regarding ACA exchange enrollees:

55% of Americans who currently lack insurance say they plan to sign up for coverage while 35% of the uninsured say they will not get insurance and instead pay the fine as required by the Affordable Care Act, also known as "Obamacare."

Regular readers know that the current QHP enrollment tally for the ACA, which started at around 7.1 million on May 1st (around 900K of the 8.02 million who enrolled through 4/19 never paid their first month's premium), gradually increased over the summer to a peak of around 7.3 million as of August 15th before dropping back again into autumn...right back down to around 7.1 million again as of October 15th.

At the time, ACA critics Megan McArdle and Bob Laszewski were speculating that there would likely be a substantial drop-off after the August peak due to the "3 month grace period" factor: That is, under the ACA, insurance companies aren't allowed to kick people off of their policies for non-payment of their premiums until after that payment is at least 3 months past-due. Their reasoning was that a whole bunch of people had enrolled in the spring, made a single payment but then blew it off for the rest of the summer, mooching 4 months worth of healthcare coverage for the price of one before getting kicked to the curb.

I thought it was an interesting theory which would have at least explained why the 7.3M figure was abruptly given out after months of radio silence from HHS. All year I've only found a single data point about the "3 month grace period" item: Arkansas, which reported only having 2.1% of their enrollees in that status a month or so ago. Still, 2.1% out of 7.3 million is 146,000 people, so it could have been substantial.

VT Digger, September 16:

The Vermont Health Connect website went down Monday night and will remain offline for several weeks to allow for improvements to the user experience and data security, state officials said Tuesday.

Customers who need to report changes in income or make changes to their coverage or personal information will need to contact the customer service call center.

Vermont Governor Shumlin, November 7th:

Gov. Peter Shumlin is “hopeful” that Vermont’s health care exchange website will be online in time for the open enrollment period that begins Nov. 15. But he didn’t sound certain Friday that his team will make the deadline.

“I’ve been discouraged so many times by this website that I’ll believe it when I see it,” Shumlin said on Vermont Edition Friday. “What I’ve been told by my folks who are working really hard on this is that we’ll be ready for open enrollment on Nov. 15.”

I've discussed the "OMG!! ELEVENTYBILLION POLICIES CANCELLED!!" issue many times before.

In the past, I've pointed out that the actual number of policies which were cancelled last year due to not being compliant with ACA requirements was far, far less than the 5, 6 or 7 million that people were hollering about. In the end it appears to only have been around 1-2 million at most, with the rest being extended by 1, 2 or 3 years via President Obama/HHS's "waiver/grandfathering" allowance.

Of course, that does mean that there will be another chunk of policies cancelled this year, and a smaller number next year, with perhaps a handful left over for 2016...at which point everyone should be on a fully ACA-compliant Qualified Health Plan (QHP).

I can't believe I missed this the other day.

When I posted about the HHS Dept. announcing that a) 7.1 million people were still currently enrolled & paying for exchange QHPs as of October 15 and b) that they also issued an official projection of somewhere between 9.0 - 9.9 million enrolling during the 2015 open enrollment period, I only saw what was included in the official press release.

However, it seems that, according to Politico, there was more to this story beyond the PR itself:

First of all, while the range given was between 9 - 9.9 million, apparently HHS Secretary Burwell is actually looking at the lower end of that range:

Speaking at a Center for American Progress event, she stayed on the smaller end of the range, identifying 9.1 million as the actual sign-up goal.

However, the more noteworthy part to me is this passage:

This is a pretty short article, and it pretty much covers the bases, so I don't have too much to add...

As New York gears up for the Obamacare open-enrollment period that begins on Nov. 15, state officials have a vested interest in making sure things go smoothly. The success of health care reform in New York will be measured by how many residents maintain their coverage or sign up for the first time.

Just over 75% of those who used the state's new Obamacare exchange last year would recommend it to others, according to a new survey. But 92% of respondents who used the exchange to become newly insured were satisfied with the coverage, according to the survey, released Monday by the New York State Health Foundation.

However, there is one additional point I should add. Remember that ridiculous Bankrate survey I posted about yesterday which claimed that over half of ACA enrollees don't plan on using the exchanges again this year? Well...

Faced with a decision on whether to enroll again, 92% of respondents said they are at least somewhat likely to renew their coverage.

Haven't heard much news out of Hawaii of late, so this is a nice surprise:

Nov. 11--Health insurance rates for nearly 13,000 individuals will rise Jan. 1, while close to 33,000 people may be pleasantly surprised to see premium decreases.

The state Insurance Division has approved an average 9.2 percent rate hike for 9,600 individuals covered by Kaiser Permanente Hawaii and 3.8 percent increase for 3,141 members with the Hawaii Medical Service Association.

Kaiser also got the green light to drop rates by 2.8 percent for 4,800 small businesses with roughly 26,200 members at the start of the year, while HMSA received approval to cut rates by an average 6.2 percent for 6,527 individuals.

  • 9.2% x (9,600 / 12,741) = 0.06931952
  • 3.8% x (3,141 / 12,741) = 0.0093680245
  • Add them up and you get: 0.078687545 = 7.8%

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