Charles Gaba's blog

The data below comes from the GitHub data repositories of Johns Hopkins University, except for Utah, which comes from the GitHub data of the New York Times due to JHU not breaking the state out by county but by "region" for some reason.

Important:

  • Every county except those in Alaska lists the 2020 Biden/Trump partisan lean; Alaska still uses the 2016 Clinton/Trump results (the 2020 Alaska results are only available by state legislative district, not by county/borough for some reason...if anyone has that info let me know)
  • I define a "Swing District" as one where the difference between Biden & Trump was less than 6.0%. FWIW, there's just 187 swing districts (out of over 3,100 total), with around 33.7 million Americans out of 332 million total, or roughly 10.2% of the U.S. population.
  • For the U.S. territories, Puerto Rico only includes the case breakout, not deaths, which are unavailable by county equivalent for some reason.

With those caveats in mind, here's the top 100 counties ranked by per capita COVID-19 cases as of Thursday, March 18th, 2021 (click image for high-res version).

  • Blue = Joe Biden won by more than 6 points
  • Orange = Donald Trump won by more than 6 points
  • Yellow = Swing District (Biden or Trump won by less than 6 points)
Covered California

Yesterday's press release from Covered California included a TON of important information about how they're handling the massive subsidy upgrade/expansion under the American Rescue Plan, but it left out one other critically important item which was caught by Inside Health Policy reporter Amy Lotven:

Insurers participating in Covered California have agreed to help move their off-exchange individual plan enrollees into the marketplace so they can benefit from the new Affordable Care Act subsidies available under the American Rescue Plan (ARP) and will not reset the deductibles, Covered California Executive Director Peter Lee said Thursday (March 18) in a webinar with reporters and key stakeholders.

...Off-exchange enrollees could get an average $500 premium drop, which means they could save as much as $12,000 under the two-year provision, Lee says. About 430,000 Californians and 1.5 million people nationally who are enrolled off-exchange plans are newly eligible for help, the exchange estimates.

A picture is worth 1,000 words and all that.

I've done my best to label every state/territory, which obviously isn't easy to do for most of them given how tangled it gets in the middle. For cases per capita, the most obvious point is that New York and New Jersey, which towered over every other state last spring, are now dwarfed by North & South Dakota, although things are pretty horrible nearly everywhere now.

1 out of every 8 residents of North Dakota, South Dakota and Rhode Island have tested positive for COVID-19 over the past year.

1 out of every 9 residents of Utah, Iowa, Tennessee, Arizona and Oklahoma have tested positive.

1 out of 10 in Arkansas, Nebraska, South Carolina, Alabama, Kansas, Mississippi and Indiana.

1 out of 15 in 43 states.

1 out of 20 in 47 states & territories.

The Maryland Health Benefit Exchange has issued a new press release which on the surface doesn't seem terribly unusual--it touts an impressive number of Maryland residents having gained healthcare coverage since they first launched their COVID-19 Special Enrollment Period (SEP).

What's unusual about this PR is that it's listing the cumulative number of people who've gained coverage since they launched their first COVID SEP a year ago:

MORE THAN 140,000 COVERED SINCE MARYLAND HEALTH CONNECTION LAUNCHED COVID-19 SPECIAL ENROLLMENT ONE YEAR AGO

  • 236,000 WHO STILL LACK COVERAGE COULD GET IT FOR FREE OR WITH SIGNIFICANT FINANCIAL HELP

(MARCH 17, 2021) BALTIMORE — Yesterday marked one year since the Maryland Health Benefit Exchange launched a Coronavirus Emergency Special Enrollment Period in response to the public health emergency declared by Gov. Larry Hogan.

On Monday I noted that in the wake of the passage and signing of HR 1319 (the American Rescue Plan, or ARP), which includes a dramatic (if time-limited) upgrade & expansion of ACA individual market subsidies, Senate Democrats are hard at work pushing for several other important bills to make President Biden's larger healthcare policy vision a reality on a permanent basis.

The three bills I discussed in Part 1 are:

  • Sen. Mark Warner's Health Care Improvement Act of 2021 (S.352)
  • Sen. Michael Bennet & Sen. Tim Kaine's re-introduced "Medicare X" Act (S.386, I believe)
  • Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's Improving Health Care Affordability Act (S.499)

Of the three, the one which seems most likely to actually have a shot at passing both the House and Senate and being signed into law by President Biden during the 2021 - 2022 legislative session is Sen. Shaheen's S.499, which would:

IRS Logo

A few days ago I called out Axios healthcare reporter Sam Baker and others who spread the jaw-droppingly inaccurate claim that the American Rescue Plan (ARP) will spend anywhere from $25,000 - $40,000 per person to provide healthcare coverage to uninsured individuals.

Everyone who spread this disinformation was getting both the numerator and the denominator wrong. In short, they were claiming that the federal government was going to spend up to $53 billion to provide healthcare coverage to a mere 1.3 million people for as little as a six-month period (which would amount to an insane $80,000 per year apiece if true...which it isn't).

As I explained in painstaking detail, the actual amount being spent per person is more like $3,300 apiece for anywhere from 14.2 million to 18.6 million people depending on whether you're going by the House or Senate CBO score (and the final version of the ARP was the Senate version).

Back in late January, Senator Mark Warner of Virginia announced the introduction of a new-ish bill called the Health Care Improvement Act of 2021. Tell me if any of the major provisions look familiar:

  • Capping health care costs on the ACA exchanges
  • Establishing a low-cost public health care option
  • Authorizing the federal government to negotiate prescription drug prices
  • Allowing insurers to offer health care coverage across state boundaries
  • Supporting state-run reinsurance programs
  • Incentivizing states to expand Medicaid
  • Expanding Medicaid eligibility for new moms
  • Simplifying enrollment
  • Increasing Medicaid funding for states with high levels of unemployment
  • Reducing burdens on small businesses

NOTE: SEE SUMMARY TABLE IN UPDATE ALL THE WAY AT THE END.

I'm doing my best to stop myself from putting my head through a wall this weekend.

You may have seen this viral tweet making the rounds over the past day or so:

The Democrats just spent $52 billion to subsidize COBRA for 1.3 million people until September. That’s $40k per person for less than 6 months of health insurance. Most countries spend about $5-6k per person per year for universal healthcare.

— cabral (@axcomrade) March 12, 2021

This was posted at 12:22pm on Friday, March 12th, 2021. It's still live as of 11:00am on Sunday the 14th, has over 32,700 Likes and has been retweeted over 7,300 times as of this writing, but in case it's deleted by the time you read this, here's a screen shot:

HealthCare.Gov Logo

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) has just sent out guidance about how the newly-expanded & enhanced subsidies will work for those currently enrolled in (or newly enrolling in) healthcare policies via the federal ACA exchange, HealthCare.Gov.

It's important to note that the following guidelines only apply to residents of the 36 states hosted via HC.gov. The timing, policy and procedures for the new/expanded subsidies for residents of the 15 states which operate their own ACA exchanges may vary.

With that in mind, here's how CMS says things will work via HealthCare.Gov.

The first section is mostly just an overview of the ARP and a refresher on how ACA subsidies are calculated...

American Rescue Plan and the Marketplace

The New Law

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