2016 Rate Requests: Where Things Stand (UPDATED)
I posted this a couple of weeks ago, but with approved 2016 rates finally being announced for California, and requested rates being announced in Maine, here's an update to the state-by-state roundup of where things stand at the moment:
- California: (semi-approved) overall weighted avg. increase: 4.0%
- Colorado: (requested) semi-weighted avg. rate increase: 13.1%
- Connecticut: (requested) weighted avg. rate increase: 5.2%
- District of Columbia :(requested) semi-weighted avg increase: 5.3%
- Hawaii: (requested) weighted avg. rate increase: 33.7%
- Kentucky: (approved) changes ranging from 11% decrease to 25% increase
- Maine: (requested) semi-weighted avg. increase: 0.7%
- Maryland: (requested) semi-weighted average rate increase: 22.5%
- Michigan: (requested) weighted avg. rate increase: 9.8%
- UPDATE: Minnesota: (requested) semi-weighted avg. rate increase: 37.0%
- Oregon: (approved) weighted avg. rate increase: 24.2%
- Pennsylvania: (requested) changes ranging from 1% decrease to 58% increase
- Rhode Island: (requested) weighted avg. rate increase: 7.9%
- Vermont: (requested) weighted avg. rate increase: 7.8%
- Washington State: (requested) semi-weighted avg. rate increase: 5.4%
- Of the 14 states (+DC) above, only California, Kentucky and Oregon rates have been approved so far; the rest are pending review and could change dramatically in some cases.
- Kentucky and Pennsylvania rates are simply the range; I don't have enough market share data to do a proper weighted average on either one
- Some of the weighted averages are partial, though most should cover the vast majority of current enrollees
With all that in mind, with the addition of Hawaii, the District of Columbia, California, Maine, Pennsylvania & Minnesota, these 14 states (+DC) represent around 28% of the total individual health insurance market nationally (assuming it stayed relatively proportionate from 2014 to 2015, which obviously might not be the case).
Again, it's still all over the place, but things are starting to come into focus.
UPDATE: Whoops! Forgot Hawaii and DC; both have been added to the mix.
UPDATE x2: As pointed out in the comments, technically speaking CA's rate increases still have to be reviewed by the state regulators. However, given the certainty in this press release and the fact that in California, the state insurance commissioner doesn't have the authority to set rates anyway, it seems pretty likely that these are indeed the actual rates we'll be seeing next year.
UPDATE x3: Added Minnesota.