2018 MIDTERM ELECTION

Time: D H M S

Oregon: Exchange QHPs up to 75.7K; OFF-exchange: 40.7K

As I've noted before, updating Oregon's QHP total does nothing to change the overall tally this year because they're operating on HC.gov now. It is useful to keep a running total on the state, however, given the mess from last year that they're comparing against. In addition, Oregon is the only state (so far) providing hard numbers for off-exchange QHP enrollments.

As I also noted a week or so ago, however, there's an odd discrepancy between the OR state website (which claimed just 67.4K QHPs through 11/21) and the HHS Dept. report (which claimed QHP selections were alredy at over 73K 6 days earlier, on the 15th). With that in mind, use tonight's update with caution:

Open enrollment weekly updates

The Insurance Division will collect enrollment information from carriers each week throughout 2015 open enrollment. Updated numbers will be posted each week on this web page.

Members enrolled,
Nov. 15-Dec. 28
On Healthcare.gov 75,740

Outside of Healthcare.gov 40,731
Total 116,471

About the data: Enrolled means a person has selected a plan. Consumers must pay the first month's premium for their coverage to become effective. These numbers do not identify whether the first month's premium has been paid. These numbers do not include Oregonians enrolled in the Oregon Health Plan (Medicaid).

These preliminary numbers are subject to change week to week based on people changing or canceling plans or having a change in status such as a new job or marriage.

They make it clear that this is total plan selections (not simply paid enrollments), and it doesn't include Medicaid, so I'm not sure I understand the discrepancy. I'll update if I receive an expanation.

Meanwhile, another 40,731 people have enrolled in off-exchange QHPs in Oregon...roughly 54% as many as via HC.gov.

Again, I have no idea how representative Oregon is nationally, but if it is, that suggests up to 4.8 million off-exchange QHPs in addition to the 8.9 million exchange-based ones. Pushing this formula further, if my estimate of 12.5 million total exchange QHPs proves accurate, that should mean another 6.75 million off-exchange...which sounds about right to me (it was around 8 million off-exchange last year, and it's natural to assume some shifting from off-exchange to exchange-based policies).